Mark Avery's blog

I'm the RSPB's Conservation Director. My aim with this blog will be to comment on matters of conservation importance and give you a few insights into the RSPB's conservation work - there's plenty to write about!  More...

Clueless about the numbers

I have a new iPhone which looks as though it might replace my much-loved Blackberry.  One of its advantages is that I can write and manage this blog whilst on the move. 

iPhones come with 'apps' - applications.  These packages come with the phone or can be downloaded at a small cost or often for free.  One of my free apps tells me how stock markets around the world are behaving so I can tell you that the FTSE 100 share index closed 17 points up on Friday at 5,142 - in fact 5,142.72 to be ridiculously precise.

And my app tells me that the Dow finished up on Friday too, and the Dax did well as well. And I've already heard the value of the London Stock Market mentioned on the radio this morning.

These financial numbers are an every day part of our lives - they are in the newspapers, on the radio and often form part of the tickertape of news on the TV.  Yet I don't have any real understanding of what they mean.  I have a vague understanding that a rising FTSE means that something called 'the economy' is doing well (and it does mean that my FTSE share-tracker ISA has made some money for me).  Economists tell me that these figures, updated in real time, have no real significance at all.  It's a bit like the farmland bird index - if we could tell you how many birds there were every few seconds of the year then maybe we might - but it wouldn't mean anything at all.  It's the seasonal and annual and long term changes that are significant.  But with financial numbers - we can tell ourselves what's happening every few seconds and so we do.

At a deeper level I refer you, again, to that speech by Bobby Kennedy which pointed out that financial numbers can go up when the world gets worse, and down when the world becomes a better place. And then there is that great phrase that 'the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment'.  If you would like decision makers to take account of the natural world when spending your money and shoring up the economy then please sign the RSPB's Letter to the Future.

Posted by mark avery at 7:55 on 9 November 2009.  2 comments

Comments

IanP
Posted on Monday, 9 November 2009 at 15:21

Funnily enough, I thought about this subject when I was with Wildlife Enquiries because I know that short-term trends can influence thinking. What happens when a short-term trend goes deeper than the usual fluctuations?

It may mean nothing until the corresponding (and expected) dip goes deeper still.

The next dip may or may not be deeper or may recover...

There lies the problem... when to sound the fire alarm or be like Richard Madeley and claim it is all a theory.

Sooty
Posted on Monday, 9 November 2009 at 19:28

Oh for someone to simplify the farmland bird index so that farmers willing to help would have things explained simply.No one is likely to go back to haymaking so what could be done to help combat the early cutting of silage and also stubble's are not likely to be left overwinter.Is it likely to help if tailing's which are probably not much use were put out.Wonder if the increase in Buzzard numbers are more likely for decline in Kestrels as I thought it a well known fact that lots of kestrels found in Buzzards nests.Sorry to sound defeatist but seems really a shame  to do such a lot of work on the farmland bird index and come to all sorts of conclusions and not any information how Tom,*** and Harry could help if so persuaded by cpre or whatever and Peter Kendall and I think it is a fair bet that if I haven't seen this information hardly any busy farmers have.Even a short while ago House Sparrows were a pest on the dairy farm now hardly any and I have never seen any sensible explanation not even the old proverbial standby really good this one farmland intensification.Come on all you brains us practical workers want to know how to help we can't work all these graphs out by ourselves after all a lot of them will be up at 5.30am thinking about lots of other things.

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