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We launched the report on the impacts of the Scheldt storm-surge barrier this morning (see previous blog for headlines). 

Opposite the Treasury (how appropriate - any investment in a Severn Barrage must be prudent!), two members of the Netherlands agency the Rijkswaterstaat, Eric van Zanten and Leo Adriaanse, described the damage done to the eastern Scheldt estuary by the building of a storm surge barrier across the mouth of the estuary.

What struck me, as a layman, was the big changes that occurred even though the storm surge barrier is a wall with lots of holes in it!  The holes are only completely closed a few times a year when high tides and unfavourable winds threaten the Dutch coast.  This is miles away from a barrage and yet the impacts were large.

The audience of a couple of MPs, a member of the House of Lords (actually a Lady), some NGOs, some people interested in barrage building, a consultant or two and representatives from DECC and Defra seemed impressed by the insight this report gives.

Although all estuaries are different, the point was made that the Scheldt is in many ways quite similar to the Severn.

Our two Dutch friends are now, at 1545, giving their presentation to an audience in Bristol - they are having a busy day.  I couldn't give a technical presentation in Dutch - could you?

I'd started the day with an interview on the Radio 4 Today programme.  Usually I do these sitting at Sandy with headphones and a microphone but today it was in the studio in London with Jim Naughtie and John Humphrys across the table - much more fun!  The interview can be reached through this link for the next few days - I thought it went quite well (and 'Thank you!' to Prof Roger Falconer for his kind remarks about the RSPB!).

I've not yet written about the proposed Severn barrage on this blog - which is a bit odd as it's a big issue and an important subject and we have been very involved in these discussions for years.

I grew up in Bristol and much of my early birdwatching was done at sites such as Frampton-on-Severn, Slimbridge, Aust, Avonmouth, Portbury, Sand Point and Sand Bay, Brean Down, Berrow, Huntspill and Stert on the English side of this estuary.  Those were the first places I saw large flocks of wintering waders and began to learn how to identify godwits, curlews and a range of sandpipers and plovers.

The Severn is an amazing estuary - great for wildlife (very important for migratory fish such as salmon, eels and lampreys) but also an amazing geographical phenomenon. 

With a 14m tidal reach, one of the largest in the world, there is no doubt that we should be looking at ways to harness the tidal energy provided by the Severn.  A barrage is one option, but there are many others.  But for any project which would cost billions of pounds to complete, at a time when money is tight, we have to be very sure that any money spent will deliver big benefits and not cause great damage.

One of the ways to judge the impact of a barrage is to look at what has happened elsewhere. 

Today we are releasing an official Dutch report which documents the harm done by building a storm-surge barrage across the Oosterschelde estuary in the late 1980s.  The UK government has known about this report since 2008 and yet the lessons from the Schelde have not, as far as we can tell, been taken on board in the UK.

The Dutch report found that building the barrier (which is probably in some ways less damaging than a barrage) led to loss of tidal mudflats and saltmarshes harming the wildlife of the area, damaging shellfish fisheries, reducing tourism and creating a need for massive extra investment in flood defence measures.  Many would say that the Dutch experience shows how bad such a project can be.  The Dutch, arguably, had to do something to reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding - we aren't in a remotely similar position.

The Oosterschelde is very similar to the Severn estuary, though smaller, and is being damaged beyond repair - something our Government seems to have known since 2008.  We know that the Government has produced its own report on how a barrage would affect the tides and sediments of the Severn.  The big questions now are what does that report say? and when can we all see it?

It feels like winter, but spring can’t be far away.  Great tits have been singing for weeks – even through the big freeze - and I’m hearing thrushes singing more and more often.  In just six weeks time I’ll be looking out for the first wheatears, sand martins and listening for chiffchaffs.  I will expect to have seen a swallow before the end of March and then April brings a torrent of migrant birds – the warblers, martins, swifts, cuckoos, nightingales, yellow wagtails etc etc

Spring migration is a big rush – the urge to set up a territory, find a mate and get on with producing the next generation is overwhelming.  And millions of birds head back to Europe from their wintering grounds in Africa to join us in our gardens, woods and farmland – and our nature reserves.

Those returning migrant birds have always faced problems on their amazing journeys.  Imagine a swallow coming back from South Africa (to avoid the World Cup?) battling across the Sahara, looking for food and drink along the way, avoiding predators of all shapes and sizes across many countries and needing to cope with strong winds, rain and heat along the marathon journey.  Bird migration is an awesome twice-yearly process and spectacle.

We’ve added to the difficulty of the journey  – habitat destruction and degradation, climate change affecting food supplies, pollution, traffic, disturbance all add to the threats and challenges.

But, totally unacceptably, in too many countries, particularly in southern Europe, so-called hunters are shooting birds out of the skies.  This spring killing is not condoned or supported by respectable hunting organisations.  There are good reasons why most legitimate sports shooting takes place in autumn – it’s hardly sporting, and often unsustainable, to kill birds as they head into the breeding season.

Our BirdLife International partner in Malta – BirdLife Malta – is a great little organisation.  Malta acts as a magnet to migrating birds and the sad thing is that many species are killed (I won’t call it hunting) there, including in spring and including many protected species.

Malta became a part of the European Union a few years ago and signed up to the Birds Directive which regulates hunting.  It is simply unacceptable for Malta to get the benefits of EU membership and not enforce environmental legislation. 

The RSPB and other BirdLife International partners are working closely with our Maltese partner to persuade the Maltese government to end illegal killing of birds on Malta.  Please sign the petition to demonstrate to the Maltese government that there is international pressure to end this illegal activity.

On Wednesday we handed in 210,567 signatures to the wildlife Minister Huw Irranca-Davies demonstrating public support for our campaign to end illegal killing of birds of prey in the UK. 

Three MPs (see below) have tabled the following Early Day Motion (EDM) in Parliament:

That this House congratulates the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds on acquiring over 200,000 signatories to its campaign to end the illegal killing of birds of prey; recognises the depth of public support this shows for more action to be taken to protect birds of prey; further recognises the socio-economic benefits healthy bird of prey populations can bring to rural communities; notes that the shooting, poisoning and other destruction of magnificent species including hen harriers, golden eagles and peregrine falcons remains unacceptably common; acknowledges that such persecution represents a major impediment towards the recovery of such species to their historic levels; and calls on the Government to make ending the illegal killing of these iconic birds a greater priority.

Well said!  And thank you to those three sponsoring MPs.  Angela Smith has worked closely with us on birds of prey and other issues.  Norman Baker is a long-term friend of the environment and the RSPB.  Alistair Burt has the RSPB's Sandy UK Headquarters in his constituency and is an enthusiastic supporter of our work.  

An EDM draws attention to a cause or event and allows MPs to show their support by signing the EDM.   

So far, the following 58 MPs have supported EDM 654:

Conservatives: Alistair Burt, Peter Bottomley, Andrew Rosindell

Democratic Unionist:   David Simpson, Gregory Campbell,  Jeffrey Donaldson

Independent:   Bob Spink

Labour:  Angela Smith, Lindsay Hoyle, Stephen Hepburn, Joan Humble,  Chris McCafferty,  John McDonnell,  Laura Moffatt, Ronnie Campbell,  Janet Dean,  Andrew Dismore,  David Drew,  Paul Truswell,  Desmond Turner,  Robert N Wareing,   Brian Jenkins,  Alan Meale,  Edward O'Hara,  Martin Caton,  Jeremy Corbyn,  Neil Gerrard,  John Battle,  Keith Vaz,  David Lepper,  Bill Etherington, Betty Williams,  Alan Simpson,  Ann Cryer,  Graham Stringer,  Rudi Vis, Harry Cohen,  David Anderson,  Lindsay Roy,  Greg Pope,  David Crausby,  Paul Flynn,  David Heyes

Liberal Democrats:   Norman Baker, Andrew George, Paul Holmes,  Mike Hancock, Phil Willis,  John Leech, John Hemming,  Mark Hunter,  Annette Brooke,  Lorely Burt,  Andrew Stunell,  John Barrett, Richard Younger-Ross

Social Democratic and Labour Party: Eddie McGrady, Mark Durkan

I'll update you on progress with this EDM but if you would like to contact your MP on any issue, or to tell them of your support for the bird of prey campaign, or maybe ask them to sign up EDM 654 then use this link. 

I was really struck by this account in the New York Times of the potential impacts of the recession, and government debt, on the US economy.

These sentences stood out for me: For Mr. Obama and his successors, the effect of those projections is clear: Unless miraculous growth, or miraculous political compromises, creates some unforeseen change over the next decade, there is virtually no room for new domestic initiatives for Mr. Obama or his successors.

I thought the clarity of the writing of this whole piece was exceptional - I'm not sure a UK paper would do it as well.  But we haven't seen the messages spelled out quite this starkly yet.  We will after the general election, whoever wins.

In a world where money is tight then the environment may benefit a bit by the fact that polluting and damaging activities are reduced somewhat.  But it loses out if politicians succumb to the temptation to trim the environment first and harder than 'economic' sectors.  We believe that this argument is false but false arguments don't always fail to convince.  Please sign the RSPB Letter to the Future to strengthen our voice, and nature's voice, with politicians and other decision makers.

Here is a speech by the Conservative Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Nick Herbert, which was made on Tuesday.  We hope that all the political parties will be making it clear what they will do for the environment if they are in government after the General Election.

But we'd also like to help you to tell the politicians what you want! Nature needs a voice in the General Election and you can speak up for nature by contacting your candidates in your own constituency.  Click on the link here to see what we are doing in the run up to the General Election and click on the 'Contact your candidates' link on the right hand side of the page to see how to contact those people who will be standing for Parliament in your constituency.

The Times today reports a speech made yesterday by Prince Charles in which he expresses sentiments very similar to those of our Letter to the Future campaign and also puts in a plea for birds to have a place to nest in our buildings.

Here are two quotes:

“I believe it is of crucial importance to work with, in harmony with nature, to rediscover how it is necessary to work with the grain of nature, as it is necessary to work with the grain of our humanity,” he said. “What is the point of all this clever technology if at the end of the day we lose our souls, and the soul of nature of which we are a part?” .

“It is immoral not to consider those other species that share this planet with us,” he said. “If the swallows and swifts stop coming here and nesting on the buildings that I love, then there is no point to life. Literally. It is symbolic, like the albatross. If that becomes extinct then I think we deserve nothing but reprobation.".

Elsewhere in the paper is a letter from a gentleman who used to see lots of buzzards in Shropshire and now sees lots of red kites - and wonders whether the two are related.  Probably not I would have thought!

Everyone claims they use evidence-based decision-making.  But many use science as drunks use lamp-posts - more for support than illumination! 

I couldn't help noticing a piece on the ShootingUK website recently.  It covered the research which looked at the potential impacts of grey squirrels on songbird populations covered earlier in this blog on 8 January.  The research by the BTO couldn't find convincing impacts of grey squirrels, at a population level, on songbird populations.  However, Nick Forde, a trustee of Songbird Survival, doesn't appear to believe the results.

According to ShootingUK,  Mr Forde said 'We regard correlative analyses of observational datasets with caution. In our view, using the Breeding Bird Survey data to examine a complex problem like predation is using a rather blunt instrument. It is an escapable fact that the grey squirrel is a highly invasive non-native predator. One should consider that it is probably in the interests of major conservation organisations not to find a problem with grey squirrels or otherwise they would have to do something about it.'.

Well that's very interesting.  The research wasn't done by a major conservation organisation - it was done by the BTO - a highly respected research organisation.  But if one of the major conservation organisations in Mr Forde's mind is the RSPB (which also does highly respected research by the way!) then he ought to get up to date with our views on grey squirrels - we regard them as a big conservation problem because of the threat they pose to the remaining native red squirrel populations (even if they aren't a big factor in woodland bird declines). But I get the impression that Mr Forde isn't too bothered about the science, he is keen to criticise grey squirrels and 'major conservation organisations'

But Mr Forde's comments become really quite intriguing when you learn that Songbird Survival commissioned the BTO to do analyses of the impacts of various predators on a range of songbird species (we know because some of the datasets are joint BTO and RSPB datasets and so we gave permission for this use - and also because Mr Forde and others have mentioned it to us) and those analyses will appear in due course.  They are correlative analyses of observational datasets too.  Could it be that Mr Forde doesn't like the results that he has paid for? Is he even now attempting to distance himself from the conclusions?

And Shooting Times currently has an online poll on the subject of grey squirrels - let's see how science-friendly is their readership?

The RSPB invests a lot of our resources into science.  We think that basing actions on a sound understanding of the natural world is a good thing to do.  Have a look at the science that the RSPB carries out by clicking here.

You may have wondered what has happened to our Bird of Prey pledge campaign.  This campaign is to send a strong message to this and future governments that the illegal killing of birds of prey is unnacceptable. Back in the summer and autumn there were frequent mentions of it in this blog and heavy hints that we were getting close to the 200,000 mark.

Well, today we handed in the petition to the Defra Biodiversity Minister, Huw Irranca-Davies, at an event in the park next to Parliament.

Volunteers came and held up placards to make the shape of a giant peregrine falcon and as if by magic, when some of the placards were turned over they revealed the logos of some of the 30 organisations supporting the campaign and the magic number 210, 567 - the highest number of signatures that the RSPB has ever gathered for any cause.  Thank you to all of you who signed up. And thank you to those who stood in the cold with aching arms today!

And we got support from many countryside organisations and from the environment Ministers in all four UK parliaments and from the biggest three political parties in England. 

I know that Mr Irranca-Davies is personally committed to this cause.  In one of his first Ministerial days out he visited the Gateshead red kite project and signed the bird of prey pledge on behalf on Defra.  That pledge, I am glad to tell you, is still hanging in his office in Defra.

It would have been great had a real peregrine flown over - one quite often sees them perching on the Houses of Parliament these days, but it is a bit sad to realise that there are more pairs of peregrines nesting in central London than in the Peak District or in many other highly suitable upland areas. 

So is that it?  Of course not!  Watch the RSPB website and this blog for news of our continuing work for birds of prey.  The illegal persecution of these impressive but vulnerable birds is a national disgrace.  Now almost everyone has said that it must stop - let's make sure that it does stop!

This is a catch-up on white-tailed eagles.

Last Monday's East Anglia Daily Times had a two-page spread on the subject of white-tailed eagles. It included large chunks of my blog (6 January) on myths about white-tailed eagles, Derek Moore's comments which also appeared here on my blog, a piece by Nicola Currie, the CLA's Regional Director, and an article about the value of white-tailed eagles to the local economy. 

The CLA are still questioning whether white-tailed eagles have a history of occurrence - but not with any data.  Nicola Currie writes 'Archeological evidence is claimed to show that the sea eagle was here long ago...'.  In fact, archeological evidence shows that this bird was here long ago, and other evidence shows that they remained until not that long ago!

Iain Dunnett, the manager of the Suffolk - the Greenest County project, has visited Mull and Hungary to see places where white-tailed eagles live alongside agriculture and says that in both places 'the local population, including farmers, have embraced the eagle.'.  He also writes 'The challenge for farmers and landowners is to overcome perceived fears and enable the reintroduction to occur with farmers receiving the maximum benefit.'.  So, no doubt about what Mr Dunnett thinks but I would re-write his sentence as follows 'The challenge for farmers and landowners is to overcome perceived fears and enable the reintroduction to occur with farmers receiving fair compensation for any damage and allowing the wider community to experience the maximum benefit.'.  But I wouldn't change a word from his conclusion 'Whether viewed following a fishing boat or roosting in a pine tree this bird would add further majesty to, and enrich the atmosphere of, the Suffolk coast.'.  This is a very welcome viewpoint - the economic value of these birds, and spiritual value too, should not be overlooked.

A letter also appeared from BASC Regional Officer which talked a lot of sense, such as 'Sea eagles simply do not have the agility and would waste more energy pursuing game birds than they would gain from it.  Like buzzards they prefer carrion.'.

And I received a letter from an academic from Southampton University, Dale Serjeantson, whose speciality is zooarcheology.  She was irritated to read newspaper reports that white-tailed eagles had never bred in East Anglia as she regards the data as 'quite abundant' that they did.  In fact, these birds must have been 'quite common' in her (expert) opinion.  Ms Serjeantson sent me a chapter she has written on extinct British birds which will appear in a book later this year.  I might send the CLA a copy when the book is published.

Overall, it seems that the hysteria is dying away and the potential return of the white-tailed eagle to lowland England is being talked about in a more rational way.

My own garden is on a much smaller scale than that of the US Ambassador's residence but I settled down to do the annual BGBW this morning at just after 11 o'clock. 

Starling and goldfinch turned up almost straight away. 

I was really pleased, and a bit surprised, to see a blackcap (female - with a brown cap).  Blackcaps are becoming commoner garden visitors these days in winter.  They are warblers - and in the past all would have disappeared off to southern Europe and north Africa for the winter, but now German blackcaps come to our gardens in winter.  This one fed on dried mealworms from our feeder and stayed for about 15 minutes to give me a good look.  It has happened before on BGBW day - I never see blackcaps in the garden in the winter except when I sit down for BGBW and then they aren't that unusual.

The fourth species was blackbird, and then chaffinch and wren made brief appearances and brought the species total to six.

I almost had a new species for the garden but it was a new species from the garden - reed bunting.  A male perched in our neighbours' garden for a few minutes before flying off in the 'wrong' direction!  But it was interesting to see a species which is really a wetland species in this urban setting.

There were no tits, no robin or dunnock, and even more surprisingly, not a single house sparrow. 

And then it was off to my mum's for lunch - and another BGBW!

Her total was 10 house sparrows (she has my share, obviously!), starling, blackbird, robin and dunnock.

I've seen a few comments on Facebook (where you can find me as Mark Ian Avery), Twitter (Mark Avery) and some emails which have the usual mixture of delight at unusual species and frustration that the 'usual' birds didn't turn up at the right time!  That's part of the fun of it for an individual - and it all comes out in the wash, we assume, as far as the overal results are concerned.

And so far it looks as though participation has been high - maybe breaking previous records?

We'll be ready to tell you the initial results on Wednesday - will there be evidence of any cold weather impact on our garden birds? 

My first Big Garden Birdwatch of the weekend was this morning at the residence of the American Ambassador in Regent's Park.

Ambassador Susman kindly allowed a group of us to count birds in his garden.  We were a mixture of young and old, expert and learner and Brit and Yank. But the garden was plenty big enough for us to spread out and do our own counts!

The dusting of snow surprised us all but the sun was shining and the birds were active.  Long-tailed tits appeared almost as if on cue, a wren sang, wood pigeons sat in the trees, great-spotted woodpeckers drummed, called and flew.  Great tits sang, robins chased each other through the shrubs, a ring-necked parakeet called and flew past, magpies chattered and a fieldfare flew over, perched briefly and flew on.

We were given a very warm welcome by our American hosts and warm hot chocolate at the end of the count.

It was fun, we saw some birds, I met some nice people.  A very sociable bird count.

Here, back in east Northants, there are lots of birds in my garden.  I bet they'll have gone when I do my second BGBW tomorrow! But I hear from staff at The Lodge that  BGBW forms are already coming to us through the internet in record numbers.

Last night in Brussels the European Landowners' Organisation and Birdlife International (of which the RSPB is the UK partner) had a very successful launch of an agreed document on reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. 

It's worth listening to the piece on yesterday's Today programme and I was really pleased that the things that were said by the Country Land and Business Organisation could have been said by the RSPB and vice versa. 

The main elements of the agreed position should not be too controversial - I paraphrase them here:

1. Appropriate land management is crucial for food production and the environment.

2. Sustainable land management needs farmers and landowners.

3.  Livestock are an important part of delivering food and in land management terms.

4.  Europe plays an important part in global food security.

5.  European policies and budgets are justified as they will help landowners rise to the challenges of producing food and a a good environment.

6. Future CAP reform should therefore seek to deliver food and a good environment.

7.  This will need measures and mechanisms rather like the current rural development and agri-environment measures rather than thefarm support measures.

The BBC seem surprised that land managers and conservationists agree.  Not at all - it happens much more than people realise - and it's good when it does.

PS In my youth the ELO were something very different

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This weekend is the Big Garden Birdwatch weekend – an annual event where around half a million people count birds in their gardens for an hour and send in the counts.

We’ve run this scheme for over 30 years and it has taken off spectacularly in the last 10 or so – entering data online has helped with that (although the paper option is still available).

I usually do two counts over the weekend – one at our home and one at my Mum’s (it’s a good excuse to get invited for Sunday lunch!).  This will be the first year for ages that neither of our children is home as they are now both at university - the BGBW has become a part of family life for us.

This year’s count will be very interesting as it follows a breeding season in 2009 which was thought to be very successful for many species and a prolonged winter freeze which only ended recently.  Will bird numbers be up or down?

Maybe it’s time to stick my neck out!  I think we will see declines in numbers in many species – but I might well be wrong.  I’d be very surprised if numbers of long-tailed tits and wrens are not appreciably lower than last year.  These are species which are known to suffer in cold weather – they are tiny after all and need to feed pretty continually through the day to have enough food to fuel their high metabolic rates and to keep them going through the long winter nights.

Other species where I think that there might be declines include dunnock and robin.  But maybe redwing and fieldfare numbers will be up – they flooded into gardens from the frozen countryside a few weeks ago and it’s possible some of them remain thanks to the generosity of garden bird feeders.

But we’ll see!  Or at least we will if you take part and send in your observations.  It’s easy, it’s fun, you might see nothing (and we’d still like to hear from you if that’s the case) or you might see all sorts of interesting birds just by investing that hour!

We’ll have the first preliminary results on Wednesday next week although the data will come in for a long time after that.  I’ll let you know what your observations have told us!

I wrote a blog back in the summer (22 July) where I disclosed that a pair of eagle owls was nesting on one of our nature reserves.

Now FERA is consulting on a risk assessment of the impacts of eagle owls on native wildlife. That seems quite a sensible thing for them to do.

The RSPB's position could be described as welcoming of wild eagle owls if they arrive back in the UK from Europe after an absence of 9000 years but a bit worried about large numbers of captive eagle owls escaping into the wild from captivity.  Our position is on our website and was last updated back in the summer.

Despite this, there are some rumours circulating about eagle owls and the RSPB.

First, that eagle owls are known to have killed hen harriers on RSPB nature reserves – not true, though they are known to be capable of bumping off smaller birds of prey including buzzards and harriers so I wouldn't rule out the possibility. 

Second, that there is proof that eagle owls have arrived from continental Europe under their own ‘steam’ – not true as far as I know. 

Third, that FERA has applied for a licence to cull eagle owls in the UK – not true as far as I know.

Fourth, that the RSPB has come out in favour of culling - not true at all.

What I can tell you is that we have received the results of analysis of eagle owl pellets collected on our nature reserve in the second part of last summer.  There were only 12 of these but nine of  them contain rabbit remains.  There are also pheasant feathers in at least one (maybe three) of the pellets and red grouse feathers in one of them.  So, on that basis, these eagle owls seem to eat rabbits and a few gamebirds during the summer.

Spanish conservationists, and others that know the bird well, tell me there is little to worry about in terms of the impacts of eagle owls on our native wildlife.  However, we've not had eagle owls in the UK since the last Ice Age and so there is always that nagging doubt as to what they might decide to eat – just as there is with white-tailed eagles! So we will be continuing to collect eagle owl pellets for analysis - I wonder what they eat at other times of year?  This is a bird about which there is more to learn.

Given the unknowns, it seems to us right that FERA, on behalf of UK administrations, is assessing whether eagle owls might pose any risks to UK wildlife.  Do, please, respond to the FERA consultation which is open until 6 February, but don’t believe the misinformation circulating on the subject.  And do let me now what you think too.