Posted by John Lanchbery in Durban
The negotiations look like going right down to the wire here in Durban – if not considerably beyond the wire and well into tomorrow. If this turns out to be the case then it will probably be a good thing because they do not carry on negotiating when there is no chance of success.
Last night, the European Union formed an alliance with the countries that will be hit hardest by climate change: the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Last Developed Countries (LDCs), making a grouping of about 120 countries. The idea is to have a progressive alliance that can act as a counter to the USA and also to some of the big developing countries, the so-called BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China).
In fact, South Africa is pretty progressive, anyway, and so is Brazil. China is taking a lot of action on climate change at home but is reluctant to commit itself internationally, although when some of us had a meeting with the Chinese minister he showed a willingness to move forward.
India is less inclined to move but they are in a different situation, being much poorer than the others in the big four, and with much lower emissions per capita. Nobody is seriously suggesting that India should take on legally binding emission limitation commitments. China, on the other hand, is now the biggest emitter in the World and if we are to keep the average global temperature below two degrees they need to be part of the solution – and the government knows this. The US Administration also understands the science but the US Congress does not, so the USA is stuck in a quandary being unable to pass climate change legislation.
Three big questions are being addressed by ministers. The first is to keep the Kyoto Protocol going, and this is the last chance to do so. The second is to start negotiations on a bigger and better treaty to start in time, and with sufficiently strong targets, to allow us to stay below two degrees. Third, we need a mechanism to ratchet up current targets. There is draft text on all three things but it is currently not ambitious enough. When the ministers get together again at 9pm, they need to soup up the draft agreement considerably.
The negotiations on tropical forests, having dived late last night, now look like giving a good outcome. Negotiations on developed country forests still have some reasonable options on the table as they go to ministers, so we will have to see what happens tonight.
It is seven o’clock and there is still a lot to do. My best guess is that negotiations will run all night in small groups and formally reconvene in the morning – so we may yet be able to go to sleep tonight.