Yesterday evening I took part in an event in Madrid which is part of a science week and the ongoing celebrations of the Charles Darwin´s 200th birthday. The event was organised by the British Council and I´d like to thank them (and especially Belen Fortea) for inviting me and looking after everything so well.
I, and a distinguished Spanish scientist, spoke about climate change and birds. The event was a cafe scientifique and so was very informal, open to all members of the public and all the more enjoyable for the tapas and beer that accompanied the talks and subsequent discussions.
There was a good turn-out of people and we had a lively discussion that covered a range of issues that had little to do with climate change - like why are there so many house sparrows in Madrid and so few in London (none of us knew!)?
I spoke briefly about the results from a Spanish-UK collaboration which involved scientists from the University of Durham, the RSPB and a Spanish publisher - Lynx. Briefly (!), this is not a coffee table book but it is fascinating reading. Every breeding bird species in Europe was looked at and its current distribution matched to climate information to describe the types of place it lives at the moment. The models work surprisingly well. Then the predicted climate at the end of the century was put into the models to predict where each species might live in future. The results are striking - we expect the average European bird species to shift its distribution 550km northwards and to lose about 20% of its range, and its new distribution to overlap its current distribution by only 40%. If true, nature really is on the move and will be for decades to come. This is such an interesting and important study I will come back to it some time.
But I illustrated the point to this audience by pointing out that the Dartford warbler, whose world range is concentrated now in Spain and Portugal will be almost gone from those countries at the end of the century. It will be much commoner in the UK (if the right habitat is there for it!) but the expected and welcome (if not certain!) gains in the UK are greatly exceded by the losses in Spain and Portugal. Whether you think that the Dartford warbler gains or loses from climate change depends on where you live - but if you ask all the Dartford warblers, they would say that they are going to lose out. And that is the general prediction for our bird species.
Not the cheeriest of messages but we also talked about parrots in parks, London being flooded, central Spain becoming less suitable for agriculture, those house sparrows, growing wine in England, how warm it is in Madrid at the moment and lots of other things. It was a fun event! And I was pleased to play a part in it. And pleased that the UK Government helps set us such events through the British Council. I´m sure that David Miliband, such a strong supporter of action on climate change is pleased that the British Council is spreading information on this subject and has been for many years.
Yes Mark if birds move north because of climate change I think almost all will be losers.The sparrow population loss is very strange and no one seems to know why and a few years ago they were a big problem on dairy farm where there was no food for them only what they could scrounge,not like on corn farms where I suppose they could always find something to eat.Now there seems hardly any and we have found that a regular little bunch comes to the bird table every day.I do wonder if some breeds have large ups and downs in population numbers.I think at least this is one time I am convinced intensive farming not to blame.