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UK could be set to lose its first bird species due to climate change

We look at the worrying results revealed by the latest national Dotterel survey.

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Juvenile Dotterel, spending time on moorland on migration
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Results from the latest national Dotterel survey have revealed declines of 89% since monitoring began in 1987/88. The rate of decline has increased since the last national survey in 2011. 

What are Dotterel?

Dotterels are small wading birds with rusty-orange chests that are adapted to breed on the rocky plateaus and sparse vegetation of mountain environments. They spend their winters in Northern Africa, and every year migrate to mountainous regions across Northern Europe - including the UK - and Asia to breed. Whilst the global population of Dotterel is classified as Least Concern by the IUCN, their future in the UK appears increasingly dire.

Cairngorm summit, Cairngorms National Park

Decades of decline

Declines in Dotterel numbers were first noted in the 1900s, raising concerns about the species. Before 2025, three national Dotterel surveys had been conducted (1987/88, 1999, and 2011) revealing a worrying contraction in the species’ range and a considerable population decline of 57% (1987/88-2011). As a result, the species is included on the UK’s Birds of Conservation Concern (BoCC) Red List. The fourth national Dotterel survey, led by RSPB in 2025, sought to identify whether these losses had continued, and where breeding Dotterel remained within the UK. 

Unlike most birds, male Dotterels stay with the nest and incubate the eggs while females move on, therefore sightings of male Dotterel were used to estimate breeding population size. To help surveyors find breeding males, they looked and listened out for anxiety calls, agitated behaviour, and distraction displays, which suggest nesting nearby.

Dr Leah Kelly, RSPB Conservation Scientist and one of the key scientists on the project, said:

Dotterels are in steep decline, and we are seeing them disappear before our very eyes. The fact they need mountain tops to breed has made them particularly susceptible to habitat loss as climate change alters their montane environment"

Female Dotterel

What the results reveal

Results of the survey revealed only 22 (10%) of the 217 sites surveyed contained any breeding male Dotterels, with most of the remaining population now restricted to the eastern and northern Highlands of Scotland. No breeding Dotterels were detected in England, Wales or southern Scotland. 

Across the surveyed areas, only 33 males were recorded, which extrapolates to an estimated total UK population of 112 breeding males. This represents a substantial 89% decline from the estimated 981 breeding males recorded in 1987/88.

Results also show an acceleration in losses since the 2011 survey, with evidence of decline in previously stable areas such as the Cairngorms in Scotland.  

Drivers of decline

Concerningly, a similar rate of decline was found inside the eight Special Protection Areas with breeding Dotterel as a qualifying feature as outside these areas (74% since 2011) suggesting the main cause of decline is universal across the UK’s mountains. 

Climate change is therefore likely to be one of the key drivers. In combination with overgrazing, changes in climate degrade the low growing, alpine vegetation favoured by Dotterel. Importantly, Dotterel’s preferred food, cranefly larvae, also appear to have undergone declines in UK montane sites based on the number of adult craneflies observed during the national surveys. 

Montane habitats are particularly vulnerable to climate change, with hotter and drier conditions pushing specialist montane species like Dotterel to higher and higher altitudes until they have nowhere left to go. This survey may be the first time the UK has documented a species being driven toward extinction locally by a changing climate.

What can be done to help Dotterel?

Whilst the fate of the Dotterel does not look promising, supporting them to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change through, for example, grazing management to keep habitat in good condition and reducing disturbance by hillwalkers and dogs, may help protect Dotterels in the UK.

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